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Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102018
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 15 2018

Joyce is a highly sheared cyclone with the low-level center well
separated from the convection.  Given the deterioration of the cloud
pattern, the initial intensity has been generously set at 35 kt.
The shear is expected to remain belligerently high and the ocean
along the forecast track is cooler. On this basis, the NHC forecast
calls for additional weakening, and then dissipation beyond 3 days
if not sooner.

Joyce continues to move eastward at about 15 kt embedded within the
fast mid-latitude flow.  The system should decrease its forward
speed as it weakens and become a shallow cyclone.  It should
then turn east-southeast and even southward steered by the low-level
flow.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0300Z 33.4N  38.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 34.5N  35.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z 34.5N  32.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  17/1200Z 34.5N  29.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  18/0000Z 33.5N  27.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  19/0000Z 31.0N  27.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 96H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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