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TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018
2100 UTC WED SEP 12 2018
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16)
KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7)
LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10)
CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 1(18) X(18)
CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PONCE PR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
VIEQUES PR 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
SAINT CROIX 34 X 2( 2) 18(20) 2(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23)
SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 6( 6) 8(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 1 17(18) 14(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BARBUDA 34 2 17(19) 3(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
ANTIGUA 34 2 31(33) 4(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37)
ANTIGUA 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GUADELOUPE 34 3 67(70) 5(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75)
GUADELOUPE 50 X 23(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
GUADELOUPE 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
AVES 34 X 8( 8) 48(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56)
AVES 50 X X( X) 20(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
AVES 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
DOMINICA 34 2 49(51) 4(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55)
DOMINICA 50 X 14(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
DOMINICA 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
MARTINIQUE 34 1 15(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
SAINT LUCIA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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