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POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072018
0900 UTC MON SEP 03 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER WESTWARD TO
EAST OF MORGAN CITY... LOUISIANA... INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND
LAKE MAUREPAS HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER WESTWARD TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY...
LOUISIANA... INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS

INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N  80.2W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N  80.2W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.1N  79.6W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 25.7N  82.1W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 27.2N  84.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 28.8N  87.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 30.4N  89.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  20SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 33.0N  92.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 34.0N  95.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 35.5N  96.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N  80.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


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