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POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072018
2100 UTC SUN SEP 02 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST FROM THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER WESTWARD TO EAST OF
MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
MAUREPAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER WESTWARD TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS

INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N  77.3W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N  77.3W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N  76.7W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 23.7N  79.3W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 25.1N  81.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 26.6N  84.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 28.0N  87.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 30.6N  91.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 33.0N  94.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 34.0N  95.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N  77.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


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