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Tropical Storm Gordon Special Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072018
830 AM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018

Surface observations from the Florida Keys and southeast Florida,
along with Doppler velocity data from the Miami radar, indicate
that the disturbance has developed a closed surface circulation and
a well-defined center. Recent observations from a Weatherflow site
at Carys Fort Reef and radar data support increasing the maximum
winds to at least 40 kt. As a result of these data, the system has
been upgraded to Tropical Storm Gordon, the seventh named system of
the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. An Air Force Reserve Unit
reconnaissance aircraft is enroute to investigate Gordon.

The initial motion estimate is 300/15 kt and the previous forecast
track remains unchanged. The intensity forecast was adjusted upward
in the first 24 to 36 hours to account for the initial increase in
intensity. Some additional adjustments may be required after the
reconnaissance aircraft completes its mission and provides more
detailed information on the stricture and intensity of Gordon.

Key Messages:

1. Gordon will bring heavy rainfall and tropical storm conditions to
portions of South Florida and the Florida Keys today and a Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect for these areas.

2. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for portions of the
central Gulf Coast, and tropical storm conditions are expected in
those areas beginning late Tuesday.  Heavy rainfall from Gordon will
affect portions of the central Gulf Coast over the next few days,
including areas that have already received heavy rainfall from a
different weather system.  Interests in these areas should monitor
products from their local National Weather Service office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1230Z 25.1N  80.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 25.7N  82.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 27.2N  84.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  04/1800Z 28.8N  87.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  05/0600Z 30.4N  89.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  06/0600Z 33.0N  92.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  07/0600Z 34.0N  95.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
120H  08/0600Z 35.5N  96.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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