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Tropical Storm Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 67A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
200 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...FLORENCE LIKELY TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION VERY SOON BUT FLASH
FLOODING AND MAJOR RIVER FLOODING CONTINUING OVER A SIGNIFICANT
PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.7N 80.8W
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM SE OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WSW OF FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence due to the heavy rainfall
threat.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located near latitude 33.7 North, longitude 80.8 West.  Florence is
moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h).  A turn toward the
northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected today,
followed by a turn toward the north and northeast with an additional
increase in forward speed on Monday.  On the forecast track,
Florence's center will move across the western Carolinas today
and then recurve over the Ohio Valley and Northeast U.S. Monday and
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional weakening is forecast while the center moves farther
inland, and Florence is expected to become a tropical depression
this morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
to the east of the center near the coast and over water.  A
sustained wind of 35 mph (65 km/h) with a gust to 44 mph (82 km/h)
was reported at the Johnny Mercer Pier in Wrightsville Beach, North
Carolina.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Southern and western North Carolina...an additional 10 to 15
inches, with storm total accumulations up to 20 inches in western
North Carolina and up to 40 inches in southeast North Carolina.
This rainfall will produce catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged
significant river flooding, with an elevated risk for landslides in
western North Carolina.

Northern South Carolina and southwestern Virginia...5 to 10
inches, isolated 15 inches.

West-central Virginia into far eastern West Virginia, north of
Roanoke and west of Charlottesville, 3 to 6 inches, isolated 8
inches.  These rainfall amounts will result in life-threatening
flash flooding and river flooding, along with an elevated risk for
landslides.

STORM SURGE:  Water levels along the coast of North and South
Carolina are gradually receding.  Some minor coastal flooding is
still possible today.  For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue for the next few
hours in portions of the warning area along the coast and also over
large portions of eastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South
Carolina, with tropical-storm-force wind gusts spreading well
inland.

TORNADOES:  A couple of tornadoes remain possible across North
Carolina and northeastern South Carolina through today.

SURF:  Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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