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Hurricane Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 59A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING
ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...
...CATASTROPHIC FRESHWATER FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH
AND SOUTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.1N 77.2W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM E OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SW OF MOREHEAD CITY NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Duck North Carolina to Cape Charles Light Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane
Florence was located by NOAA Doppler radar near latitude 34.1
North, longitude 77.2 West.  Florence is moving toward the west-
northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h).  A turn toward the west at a
slow forward speed is expected today, followed by a slow
west-southwestward motion tonight and Saturday.  On the forecast
track, the center of Florence is expected to move inland across
extreme southeastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South
Carolina Friday and Saturday.  Florence will then move generally
northward across the western Carolinas and the central Appalachian
Mountains early next week.

Data from NOAA Doppler radar indicate the the maximum sustained
winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts.  Little
change in strength is expected before Florence moves inland today.
Significant weakening is expected over the weekend and into early
next week while Florence moves farther inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km).  A Weatherflow station at Fort Macon, North Carolina
recently reported a sustained wind of 71 mph (114 km/h) with a gust
to 92 mph (148 km/h).  A NOAA observing site at Cape Lookout, North
Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 70 mph (113 km/h)
with a gust to 85 mph (137 km/h).

A USGS gauge at New Bern, North Carolina, on the Neuse River is
currently recording 10.1 feet of inundation.  Another USGS gauge in
Emerald Isle, North Carolina, recently recorded 5.5 feet of
inundation.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb (28.17 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground...

Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC...7-11 ft, with locally higher
amounts in the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers
Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC...6-9 ft
South Santee River SC to Cape Fear NC...4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC...4-6 ft
Salvo NC to Duck NC...2-4 ft
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Southeastern coastal North Carolina into far northeastern South
Carolina...20 to 30 inches, isolated 40 inches.  This rainfall will
produce catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river
flooding.

Remainder of South Carolina and North Carolina into southwest
Virginia...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches. This rainfall will
produce life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are occuring over portions of the coast
of North Carolina and are expected to spread across portions of
southeastern North Carolina and eastern South Carolina through
today.   Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread inland
across the remainder of the warning area through Saturday.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible in eastern and
southeastern North Carolina through today.

SURF:  Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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