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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number  67
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

...HEAVY RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO DELUGE SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
...FLASH FLOODING AND MAJOR RIVER FLOODING OCCURRING OVER A
SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.7N 80.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SW OF FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ESE OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence due to the heavy rainfall
threat.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located near latitude 33.7 North, longitude 80.5 West.  Florence is
moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h).  A turn toward the
northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected on Sunday,
followed by a turn toward the north and northeast with an
additional increase in forward speed on Monday.  On the forecast
track, Florence's center will move across the western Carolinas on
Sunday and then recurve over the Ohio Valley and Northeast U.S.
Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional weakening is forecast while the
center moves farther inland, and Florence is expected to become a
tropical depression early Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
to the east of the center near the coast and over water.  Within
the past hour or so, a sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) with a
gust to 51 mph (82 km/h) was reported at the Johnny Mercer Pier in
Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina.  A wind gust to 49 mph (79
km/h) was recently reported near Chester, South Carolina.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Southern and western North Carolina...an additional 10 to 15
inches, with storm total accumulations up to 20 inches in western
North Carolina and up to 40 inches in southeast North Carolina.
This rainfall will produce catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged
significant river flooding, with an elevated risk for landslides in
western North Carolina.

Northern South Carolina and southwestern Virginia...5 to 10
inches, isolated 15 inches.

West-central Virginia into far eastern West Virginia, north of
Roanoke and west of Charlottesville, 3 to 6 inches, isolated 8
inches.  These rainfall amounts will result in life-threatening
flash flooding and river flooding, along with an elevated risk for
landslides.

STORM SURGE:  Water levels along the coast of North and South
Carolina are gradually receding.  Some minor coastal flooding is
still possible through Sunday.  For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue overnight in portions
of the warning area along the coast and also over large portions of
eastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina, with
tropical-storm-force wind gusts spreading well inland.

TORNADOES:  A couple of tornadoes remain possible across North
Carolina and northeastern South Carolina through Sunday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

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