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BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number  59
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING
ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...
...THREAT OF FRESHWATER FLOODING WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 76.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF MOREHEAD CITY NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued north of Duck North
Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Duck North Carolina to Cape Charles Light Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane
Florence was located by NOAA Doppler radar and an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 76.8
West.  Florence is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h).
A turn toward the west-northwest and west at a slow forward speed
is expected through Friday, followed by a slow west-southwestward
motion Friday night and Saturday.  On the forecast track, the
center of Florence is expected to move inland across extreme
southeastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina
Friday and Saturday.  Florence will then recurve across the western
Carolinas and the central Appalachian Mountains early next week.

Data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft, coastal surface
observations, and NOAA Doppler radar indicate that maximum sustained
winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts.  Little change
in strength is expected before Florence moves inland on Friday.
More significant weakening is expected over the weekend and into
early next week while Florence moves farther inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km).  A Weatherflow station at Fort Macon, North
Carolina recently reported a sustained wind of 77 mph (124 km/h)
with a gust to 100 mph (161 km/h).

A storm surge of 10 feet above normal levels was reported by the
National Weather Service office in Morehead City, North Carolina,
at the Cherry Branch Ferry Terminal on the Neuse River, courtesy of
the North Carolina Department of Transportation.

The minimum central pressure reported by the aircraft is 956 mb
(28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground...

Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC...7-11 ft, with locally higher
amounts in the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers
Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC...6-9 ft
South Santee River SC to Cape Fear NC...4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC...4-6 ft
Salvo NC to Duck NC...2-4 ft
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Southeastern coastal North Carolina into far northeastern South
Carolina...20 to 30 inches, isolated 40 inches. This rainfall will
produce catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river
flooding.

Remainder of South Carolina and North Carolina into southwest
Virginia...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches. This rainfall will
produce life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are occuring over portions of the coast
of North Carolina and are expected to spread across portions of
southeastern North Carolina and eastern South Carolina through
Friday.   Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread inland
across the remainder of the warning area through Saturday.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible in eastern and
southeastern North Carolina through Friday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

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