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TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  63
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062018
0300 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE STORM SURGE WARNING AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED NORTH OF OCRACOKE INLET... NORTH CAROLINA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND... INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N  79.1W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  50SW  30NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 100SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N  79.1W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.9N  78.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 33.7N  79.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 140SE  70SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 33.8N  80.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  40SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 34.4N  81.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 35.9N  83.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 39.3N  81.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 41.0N  74.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 43.5N  61.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.8N  79.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 
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