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HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  59
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062018
0300 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED NORTH OF DUCK NORTH
CAROLINA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS... INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO
RIVERS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA
* CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N  76.8W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  956 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
50 KT.......100NE  80SE  80SW  70NW.
34 KT.......170NE 150SE 130SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 300SE 240SW  50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N  76.8W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.0N  76.5W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 34.2N  77.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  30NW.
50 KT... 90NE  70SE  70SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 34.0N  78.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW   0NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  30NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 33.8N  79.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  80SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 33.8N  80.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 35.5N  82.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 39.5N  82.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 44.0N  72.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.0N  76.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


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