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HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  51
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062018
0300 UTC WED SEP 12 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS... INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO
RIVERS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT
VIRGINIA
* CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR
DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N  68.7W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  946 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  40SE  40SW  35NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT.......150NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 180SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N  68.7W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.9N  68.1W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 29.6N  70.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  35NW.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 31.4N  73.4W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  45SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 32.9N  75.5W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  45SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 33.8N  76.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 34.3N  78.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  40NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 34.3N  79.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 34.9N  82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N  68.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


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