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Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
500 PM AST Mon Sep 03 2018

Florence appears a little better organized than earlier today.  Deep
convection is slightly stronger near and to the north of the center,
and the cloud pattern still resembles a central dense overcast.  A
blend of the latest Dvorak classifications suggests a slightly
higher wind speed, and accordingly, the initial intensity is nudged
upward to 60 kt.

The strong tropical storm is moving westward, or 280 degrees, at 13
kt steered by a subtropical ridge to its north.  The global models
all show a persistent weakness in the subtropical ridge during the
next several days due to a series of troughs moving across the
Atlantic.  In response, Florence is expected to gradually turn
northwestward with a slight reduction in forward speed during the
next several days.  While there remains a fair amount of spread in
the models from 72 to 120 h, there has been a notable trend to the
right, or north, during the past few model cycles.  The official
track forecast is adjusted slightly to the right as well, trending
toward the latest consensus aids.

Little change in strength is expected through tonight as Florence
remains over marginally warm waters and in moderate wind shear
conditions.  However, nearly all of the intensity models show a slow
weakening trend during the next few days.  This weakening is in
response to a gradual increase in southwesterly or westerly shear.
Beyond a few days, however, the shear is expected to decrease and
Florence will be over much warmer waters.  Therefore, slow
strengthening is shown in the 3 to 5 day period.  This forecast is
slightly higher than the previous one at the longer range, but is
otherwise unchanged.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 18.6N  39.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 19.0N  41.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 19.6N  43.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 20.4N  46.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  05/1800Z 21.5N  48.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  06/1800Z 23.7N  52.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  07/1800Z 26.0N  55.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  08/1800Z 28.0N  57.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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