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Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052018
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 17 2018

Ernesto is somewhat surprisingly maintaining convection and
well-defined banding features over the northern and eastern
portions of its circulation despite being over SSTs of 20-21C.  The
cloud tops have warmed within the past couple of hours perhaps an
indication that Ernesto is finally beginning to lose its
tropical characteristics.  A blend of the latest satellite intensity
estimates still supports an initial wind speed of 40 kt.

Ernesto will be moving over progressively colder waters during the
next 12-24 hours and should become post-tropical later today or
tonight.  Little change in strength is expected during the next day
or so while the post-tropical cyclone cyclone moves quickly across
the north Atlantic.  The cyclone is forecast to weaken slightly as
it approaches Ireland and merges with a frontal zone that is
expected to be located across the central portions of the United
Kingdom and Ireland Saturday night and early Sunday.

The tropical storm is moving northeastward at 26 kt.  A slightly
faster northeastward to east-northeastward motion is expected
during the next 36 hours as Ernesto remains embedded within the
mid-latitude westerly flow. The models continue to be in good
agreement, and the NHC track is close to the various consensus
aids.

The post-tropical cyclone or its remnants are expected to spread
gusty winds and locally heavy rain over portions of Ireland and the
United Kingdom Saturday night and early Sunday.  Information on
rainfall and wind forecasts for Ireland can be found in products
issued by Met Eireann at www.met.ie and for the United Kingdom in
products issued by the United Kingdom Met Office
at www.metoffice.gov/uk.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 47.1N  32.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  18/0000Z 49.3N  27.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  18/1200Z 51.6N  18.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  19/0000Z 53.5N  10.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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