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Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032018
1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 06 2018

The depression has not become any better organized since the
previous advisory.  Deep convection has decreased a little near the
center, but some banding features are still evident on the south
side of the circulation.  The initial intensity is held at 25 kt,
in general agreement with the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and
SAB, and automated values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin.

The system is currently over the warm Gulf Stream waters, and it is
expected to remain over this current during the next several days.
These favorable oceanic conditions combined with light to moderate
wind shear and a fair amount of moisture near the system should
allow for gradual intensification.  The SHIPS model is the most
aggressive aid and shows the cyclone becoming a hurricane in about 3
days with additional strengthening thereafter.  On the other hand,
the HMON model shows no strengthening through the period.  The NHC
intensity forecast continues to lean toward the high end of the
guidance due to the conducive environmental conditions for
strengthening.

The depression is moving north-northwestward at 5 kt steered by the
flow on the western periphery of a subtropical ridge.  A slow
north-northwest to north motion is expected during the next 24 hours
while the steering pattern holds.  However, by Saturday night, the
steering currents are forecast to collapse and the cyclone will
likely drift eastward or southeastward on Sunday and Monday.
Thereafter, a shortwave trough is anticipated to approach the system
and it should finally sweep the cyclone northeastward well east of
the U.S. coast beginning on Tuesday.  The latest HWRF model run
brings the system inland over the southeastern U.S., but this model
is an outlier, and the remainder of the guidance shows a track well
offshore of the U.S. coast.  The NHC track forecast is a tad to the
east of the previous one to come into better agreement with the
latest consensus models.

Most of the guidance suggests that the tropical-storm-force winds
associated with the cyclone will occur primarily to the east of the
cyclone's center well away from the U.S. coast.  Therefore, no
watches or warnings are required for the U.S coast at this time,
however, interests along the North Carolina coast should monitor the
progress of this system.

The technical issue with the NHC wind speed probability text product
at land locations has been resolved.  The wind speed probability
values provided in the text product, the graphics on the NHC website
at hurricanes.gov, and the publicly disseminated grid files will all
correctly reflect the reduced probabilities over land.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0300Z 32.6N  74.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 33.2N  74.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 33.7N  74.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z 33.7N  74.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  09/0000Z 33.6N  73.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  10/0000Z 33.6N  73.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  11/0000Z 34.7N  71.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  12/0000Z 38.0N  67.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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