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Subtropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022018
1100 AM AST Sun Jul 15 2018

Overall, Beryl has become less organized since yesterday, with the
cyclone currently comprised of a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds
with minimal convection in the southeastern quadrant.  While the
low-level center remains over the Gulf Stream, GOES-16 airmass
imagery indicates that the center is now west of the associated
upper-level trough and that significant northerly vertical shear is
occurring. The initial intensity of 35 kt is based on a subtropical
intensity estimate from TAFB, and it could be a little generous.

The storm has drifted east-northeastward during the past 12 h, with
the initial motion now 075/3.  A deep-layer mid-latitude trough
moving eastward across eastern Canada and the northeastern United
States should cause the cyclone to resume a northeastward motion
by tonight, with a faster northeastward motion expected on Monday
and Tuesday.  The new forecast track is nudged a little to the east
of the previous track and lies near the various consensus models.

Since the new forecast track keeps the center over the Gulf Stream
for another 12 h, the intensity forecast calls for little change in
strength during that time.  After that, a quick decay over cold
water should occur, and the new intensity forecast is the same as
the previous forecast in calling for Beryl to dissipate completely
by 72 h.  It should be noted that if the convection does not
increase above its current level, the system could weaken and
dissipate earlier than currently forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/1500Z 38.1N  64.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 39.0N  63.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  16/1200Z 40.8N  61.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  17/0000Z 43.2N  58.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  17/1200Z 45.9N  55.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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