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Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012018
400 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

Satellite and NWS Doppler radar data indicate that the center of
Alberto is making landfall along the coast of the Florida panhandle
near Laguna Beach with maximum winds estimated at 40 kt.  The
overall organization of the system has changed little throughout
the day as bands of convection have continued to develop primarily
over the northern portion of the circulation.  Data from the Air
Force reconnaissance aircraft showed that the pressure continued to
slowly rise and it was estimated to be 994 mb on the last fix just
before 1700 UTC.  Alberto should quickly weaken as the circulation
moves inland this evening and the system should become a depression
by late tonight or early Tuesday.

Alberto has been moving northward or 355/8 kt.  The track forecast
reasoning has not changed from the previous advisory.  The cyclone
should move northward to north-northwestward around the western
periphery of a mid-level ridge located over the western Atlantic
over the next couple of days.  The system is forecast to be absorbed
by a frontal system over Canada in 3 to 4 days.  The track guidance
remains in good agreement on this scenario and only slight changes
to the official forecast were required.

KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Heavy rainfall will lead to a significant risk of flash flooding
across the Florida Panhandle, much of Alabama, and western Georgia
through tonight, spreading northward into northern Georgia, the
western Carolinas, and Tennessee on Tuesday.

2.  A hazardous storm surge remains possible along portions of the
coast of the Florida panhandle through this evening.  Residents in
the storm surge watch area are encouraged to follow guidance given
by their local government officials.

3.  Tropical storm conditions are likely within portions of the
tropical storm warning through this evening.

4.  Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to
affect portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through
Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 30.3N  85.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 32.0N  86.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  29/1800Z 34.3N  87.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  30/0600Z 37.0N  87.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  30/1800Z 40.1N  86.7W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  31/1800Z 46.2N  82.3W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

$$
Forecaster Brown

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