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Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012018
400 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018

Alberto is holding its strength this morning.  The Air Force
Hurricane Hunters investigated the cyclone a few hours ago and found
winds to the north of the center that still support an intensity of
about 55 kt. The aircraft data and a NOAA buoy near the center also
indicate that the minimum pressure has dropped a little more to 990
mb.  Deep convection remains patchy, however, due to pronounced dry
slots, but Doppler radar images do show some convective bands moving
onshore over the Florida Panhandle.

Given the short period of time before Alberto makes landfall,
its overall ragged appearance, and proximity to dry air, little
change in strength is expected before the subtropical storm reaches
the coast this afternoon.  Once Alberto is inland, land interaction
should cause steady weakening to a subtropical depression tonight or
early Tuesday and to a remnant low by Tuesday afternoon.  The global
models show the low being absorbed by a frontal system over the
Great Lakes region by day 5.  The NHC intensity forecast is largely
an update of the previous one, and is in line with the majority of
the guidance.

The center of Alberto has wobbled to the left and slowed down
significantly during the past 6 hours, but a longer-term motion is
northwestward, or 315 degrees, at 6 kt.  A north-northwestward to
northward motion along the western periphery of a mid-level ridge is
expected during the next few days taking Alberto, or its remnants,
over the Florida Panhandle and then well inland over the Tennessee
and Ohio Valleys.  A turn to the northeast is predicted before
Alberto's remnants are absorbed by the above-mentioned frontal
system. The models are in fairly good agreement, and only small
changes were made to the previous NHC track prediction.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall will lead to a significant risk of flash flooding
across the Florida Panhandle, much of Alabama, and western Georgia
through tonight, spreading northward into northern Georgia, the
western Carolinas, and Tennessee on Tuesday. A risk of flooding and
flash flooding will continue over western Cuba, the Florida Keys,
and southern Florida today.

2.  Hazardous storm surge is possible along portions of the eastern
Gulf Coast today, including areas well east of the track of
Alberto's center.  Residents in the storm surge watch area are
encouraged to follow guidance given by their local government
officials.

3.  Tropical storm conditions are likely within portions of the
tropical storm warning area today.

4.  Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to
affect portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through
Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0900Z 28.6N  86.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 30.1N  86.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  29/0600Z 32.1N  86.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  29/1800Z 34.6N  87.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  30/0600Z 37.4N  87.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  31/0600Z 43.0N  86.3W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/0600Z 48.0N  81.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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