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Tropical Storm Ramon Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192017
1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 04 2017
First light visible satellite imagery show that the system is not
very well organized with little evidence of banding features.
However, radar images from Puerto Angel Mexico do depict some
rainbands over the western portion of the circulation. The current
intensity estimate is held at 40 kt, which is a little above the
latest Dvorak estimates. Ramon is experiencing strong easterly
shear associated with a large anticyclone centered near the
Texas/Mexico border. The dynamical model guidance indicate only a
slight lessening of this shear over the next few days, so only
slight strengthening seems possible. The official intensity
forecast follows the model consensus.
The center is difficult to locate, but my best guess of the initial
motion is 285/6 kt. A large mid-level ridge to the north of the
tropical cyclone is forecast to persist, which should cause a mostly
westward track over the next several days. The official forecast is
a little to the north of the previous one and roughly in the middle
of the track model guidance. There is a fairly large spread in the
models so this forecast is of low confidence.
Although the center of Ramon is expected to remain offshore, the
northward adjustment of the track forecast requires the issuance of
a Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the Mexican coast at this
time.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/1500Z 14.9N 96.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 15.1N 97.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 15.2N 100.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 15.5N 103.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 16.0N 106.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 16.5N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 17.0N 112.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 18.0N 114.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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