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TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182017
2100 UTC SAT SEP 23 2017

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
MANZANILLO NORTHWARD TO EL ROBLITO... INCLUDING THE ISLAS MARIAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWARD TO EL
ROBLITO... INCLUDING THE ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 105.3W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 105.3W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 105.2W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 18.8N 105.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 19.4N 105.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 20.2N 106.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 21.2N 106.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 22.7N 107.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 24.0N 108.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 26.0N 110.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 105.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


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