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TROPICAL STORM NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172017
0900 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017
 
INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
NORMA. A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE PENINSULA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 109.7W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT   2 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 120SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 109.7W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 109.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.0N 109.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  70SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.4N 110.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 20.0N 110.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 20.6N 110.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 22.8N 111.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 24.5N 112.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 26.3N 110.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 109.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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