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Tropical Storm Norma Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172017
900 PM MDT Mon Sep 18 2017
Norma's cloud pattern consists of a tight circulation with some
shapeless clusters of deep convection to the east of the center.
Dvorak T-numbers are decreasing and the initial intensity has
been lowered to 35 kt. The circulation is already moving over
cooler water, so the weakening process should continue. Norma
will likely become a remnant low in about 36 hours or even sooner.
The initial motion appears to be toward the west-northwest or 290
degrees at 6 kt. Most of the track models move the cyclone or its
remnants to the northwest and north around a subtropical ridge over
Mexico until dissipation. The NHC forecast follows the guidance and
is in the middle of the track model envelope.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/0300Z 21.7N 113.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 21.8N 114.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 22.2N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 23.0N 116.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW