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Hurricane MAX


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Hurricane Max Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162017
400 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

Max's structure continued to improve since the last advisory, with
a well-defined eye showing up in both visible and infrared
satellite images for a couple of hours.  At 1800 UTC, satellite
classifications ranged from 65 to 90 kt, so guidance was
initialized at 75 kt.  However, Max's center appears to be moving
onshore to the east of Acapulco, and the eye that was observed in
satellite imagery has disappeared.  The advisory intensity is
therefore set a little lower at 70 kt.

The initial motion is 080/7 kt, with Max being steered eastward to
the north of a mid-level ridge extending southwestward from Central
America.  An eastward or east-northwestward motion is expected to
continue, and Max will be moving farther inland over southern
Mexico.  There were only a few trackers available from the track
guidance, and the NHC forecast is primarily an extrapolation of the
current motion for the next 12 hours.

Now that Max is moving onshore and will be encountering the
mountains of southern Mexico, rapid weakening is likely.  In fact,
the center of the small cyclone will probably not fare well in the
high terrain, and Max is forecast to dissipate by 24 hours, if not
sooner.

Heavy rainfall continues to be the primary threat from Max.
Rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated amounts of
20 inches, are expected over the Mexican states of Guerrero and
Oaxaca, and life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are
possible.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/2100Z 16.6N  99.1W   70 KT  80 MPH...ON THE COAST
 12H  15/0600Z 16.9N  98.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 24H  15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

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