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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017
800 AM PDT Thu Sep 14 2017

The depression is still poorly organized, as about 15 kt of easterly
shear continues to separate the low- and mid-level circulation
centers. The initial intensity remains 30 kt given that the cloud
pattern has not changed much since the previous advisory. The SHIPS
model shows the shear relaxing by 24 hours, and with the cyclone
over 27-28C water, some slow strengthening is predicted. The
cyclone begins to move into a drier and more stable airmass by days
4 and 5, with the shear possibly increasing again, so some weakening
is expected by day 5.

The initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain 280/04 since there
haven't been any recent microwave passes. The depression is
currently situated south of a narrow mid-level ridge. This feature
weakens with time, leaving the cyclone is a region of weak
steering currents, with most of the guidance favoring some slow
poleward motion late in the period. The new NHC track forecast is
close to the latest HFIP consensus aid HCCA and is of low
confidence.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/1500Z 15.4N 122.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/0000Z 15.6N 123.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  15/1200Z 15.7N 124.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  16/0000Z 15.6N 124.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  16/1200Z 15.4N 125.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  17/1200Z 15.6N 125.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  18/1200Z 16.1N 125.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  19/1200Z 16.8N 125.7W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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