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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017
200 AM PDT Thu Sep 14 2017

The depression continues to be disorganized with the low- and
middle-level centers well separated due to shear. This can be
clearly observed on conventional imagery as well as microwave data.
Given the lack of organization, the initial intensity is kept at 30
kt, and no change in strength is anticipated during the next 24
hours or so. After that time, the shear is forecast to decrease, and
the depression could become better organized and reach tropical
storm status. This is the scenario provided by most of the guidance.

My best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west-northwest
or 285 degrees at 4 kt. The depression continues to be trapped
within weak steering flow, and only a small westward drift is
forecast. In fact, by the end of the forecast period, the steering
currents are expected to collapse, and the cyclone will probably
begin to meander. The NHC forecast follows most of the guidance up
to 4 days. After that time, models diverge considerably and the
forecast is highly uncertain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0900Z 15.3N 122.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 15.5N 123.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  15/0600Z 15.5N 124.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  15/1800Z 15.5N 124.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  16/0600Z 15.5N 125.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  17/0600Z 15.5N 125.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  18/0600Z 15.5N 125.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  19/0600Z 16.5N 125.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

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