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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017
200 PM PDT Wed Sep 13 2017

The cloud pattern is still disorganized and the circulation appears
to be somewhat elongated. Most of the deep convection is located to
the southwest of the center due to some moderate northeasterly
shear. Dvorak T-numbers have not changed and consequently, the
initial intensity is kept at 30 kt.  There are no obvious reasons
why the cyclone will not intensify a little.  The shear is forecast
to decrease in a couple of days and the ocean is warm. On this
basis, little change is anticipated during the next 12 hours or so
and some slight strengthening is forecast thereafter, and the
depression is still expected to become a tropical storm.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or 275
degrees at 6 kt.  The depression is embedded within light easterly
flow south of a subtropical ridge.  Global models indicate that the
steering currents will weaken even more, and this flow will only
produce a very slow westward motion through the next 3 days. After
that time, the cyclone will probably begin to meander as the
steering flow collapses completely.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/2100Z 15.1N 121.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  14/0600Z 15.2N 122.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  14/1800Z 15.4N 123.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  15/0600Z 15.5N 124.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  15/1800Z 15.5N 125.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  16/1800Z 15.5N 125.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  17/1800Z 15.5N 125.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  18/1800Z 16.0N 125.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

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