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BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E
Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142017
1200 AM MDT Wed Aug 30 2017

...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 108.2W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Cortes to Los Barriles

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Todos Santos to Los Barriles

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* north of Los Barriles to San Evaristo

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur
should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 18.1 North, longitude 108.2 West.  The system is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A slower northwest to
north-northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, the center of the disturbance will be near
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula by late Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts.  The system is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm
later today, and it could become a hurricane by late Thursday.

The disturbance continues to show signs of organization, and only a
small increase in the definition of the circulation would lead to
the formation of a tropical cyclone.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by late today or tonight, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.  Hurricane conditions
are also possible within the watch area on Thursday.
Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are possible in rainbands along the
coast of Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco today.

RAINFALL:  The system is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches in the Mexican states of Michoacan,
Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit, with isolated maximum totals of 20
inches possible along the immediate coast.  This rain could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by the disturbance are affecting portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico.  These swells will likely reach
the southern portions of Baja California Sur later today, and could
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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