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Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142017
900 AM MDT Sat Sep 02 2017

Lidia has become less organized since the previous advisory, with
satellite imagery suggesting that the low-level and mid-level
centers have become decoupled.  In addition, the coverage of deep
convection has diminished significantly, and there are no recent
observations of sustained tropical-storm-force winds.  The initial
intensity will be lowered to 35 kt based on the premise that these
winds are still occurring over the Gulf of California.  Lidia should
continue to weaken as the center moves over the cold waters west of
the northern Baja California peninsula, and the system is expected
to degenerate into a remnant low in 24 h or less. The NHC forecast
will continue to show a remnant low at 72 h, but as noted in the
previous advisory it is unclear whether this will be Lidia or
another low pressure area that absorbs the remnants of Lidia.

The initial motion is 315/10 along the south side a mid-tropospheric
high centered over the southwestern United States, and this motion
should continue for the next 36 h or so.  After that, a turn toward
the west-northwest is expected due to interaction with a mid- to
upper-level low currently seen in water vapor imagery well to the
west of the Baja California peninsula.  The new forecast track is
an update of the previous track and lies in the center of the
tightly-clustered track guidance.

Despite the ongoing and forecast weakening, the heavy rainfall
threat will continue over northwestern Mexico and the Baja
California peninsula through Sunday.  Moisture from the cyclone
should spread over portions of the southwestern United States
through the weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 27.9N 114.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...ON COAST
 12H  03/0000Z 28.9N 115.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 24H  03/1200Z 30.2N 117.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  04/0000Z 31.4N 119.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/1200Z 32.1N 121.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/1200Z 33.5N 126.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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