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Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142017
900 AM MDT Fri Sep 01 2017

Satellite imagery indicates that the center of Lidia has made
landfall on the Baja California peninsula west of La Paz.  The
convective organization of the cyclone has decreased over the past
several hours and, based on this and continuity from the previous
advisory, the initial intensity is decreased to 50 kt.  The storm
continues to have a large wind field in the eastern semicircle as
shown by a recent report of tropical-storm-force winds in Los
Mochis on the Mexican mainland.

The initial motion is 325/8.  Lidia remains between a mid-level high
centered over the southwestern United States and a mid-level trough
southwest over the Pacific, and these features should keep Lidia on
a general northwestward course for the next three days.  The new
forecast track has the center over or just off of the west coast of
the Baja California peninsula for the next 30-36 h before emerging
over the Pacific Ocean.  Overall the new track is an update of the
previous track that lies close to the various consensus models.

Steady weakening is expected while the circulation interacts with
the mountainous terrain of Baja California.  However, tropical-
storm-force winds will continue to extend well east of the center,
riding up the peninsula and adjacent Gulf of California for at least
the next 24 hours.  When Lidia emerges over the Pacific, it is
expected to be over sea surface temperatures near or below 24C,
which should cause it to quickly decay to a remnant low. The new
intensity forecast is also an update of the previous forecast and
lies at the upper edge of the intensity guidance.

While Lidia should steadily weaken, the heavy rainfall threat will
continue over northwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula
during the next few days.  Moisture from the cyclone could reach
the southwestern United States over the weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 24.6N 111.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 12H  02/0000Z 25.8N 112.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER
 24H  02/1200Z 27.4N 113.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 36H  03/0000Z 28.6N 115.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  03/1200Z 29.9N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  04/1200Z 32.5N 122.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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