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Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142017
900 PM MDT Thu Aug 31 2017

During the past couple of hours while the center of Lidia was
meandering very near the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula, the deep convection near the center blossomed, and the
cloud pattern increased in organization. In fact, there was a hint
of an eye feature in between two hooking bands. Part of the increase
in convection could be related to the moist flow against the
mountains. Based on recent satellite intensity estimates, the winds
remain at 55 kt, and now that a large portion of the circulation
is interacting with the peninsula, gradual weakening is anticipated.
If the core of Lidia moves closer or over land as indicated in the
NHC forecast, the weakening process could occur faster. Beyond 48
hours, the cold waters west of Baja California will finish the job.

Lidia hesitated earlier this afternoon, but it has now resumed a
motion toward the north-northwest or 335 degrees at about 9 kt. The
steering pattern has not changed, and Lidia is still sandwiched
between a high over Mexico and a cyclonic gyre to the west over the
ocean. This flow will keep Lidia advancing over or very near the
spine of the Baja California peninsula for the next day or two.
Thereafter, the ridge will build to the north forcing the cyclone
to move on a west-northwest to west track. By then, Lidia should
be over cold waters as a shallow remnant low.

Lidia continues to be a large system accompanied by very heavy
rains which are occurring over portions of western Mexico and Baja
California Sur.  These rains are likely to produce life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.  In addition, the mountainous terrain of
the Baja California peninsula could enhance the winds at higher
elevations.

Some of the tropical moisture from Lidia may reach parts of the
desert Southwest this holiday weekend, including southern
California, southern Nevada and southwestern Arizona.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0300Z 23.3N 110.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 24.4N 111.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 24H  02/0000Z 26.0N 112.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 36H  02/1200Z 27.3N 113.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 48H  03/0000Z 28.7N 115.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  04/0000Z 30.5N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  05/0000Z 31.5N 122.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/0000Z 31.5N 125.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

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