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Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142017
300 AM MDT Wed Aug 30 2017

The large disturbance off the coast of Mexico continues to
gradually become better organized, with some banding features over
the southern portion of the broad circulation.  There is still no
indication of a well-defined center, however.  The current intensity
estimate remains 25 kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from
TAFB.  The system/tropical cyclone should be in an environment of
weak to moderate easterly to southeasterly shear over the next few
days so once the circulation consolidates, strengthening is likely
until the system interacts with the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula.  Given the seemingly favorable environment,
the official intensity forecast is somewhat higher than the model
consensus.  The cyclone could become a hurricane when it nears Baja
California Sur, although this is not explicitly shown in the NHC
forecast. Later in the forecast period, the cyclone should weaken
while it traverses the cooler water north of Cabo San Lazaro on the
Baja peninsula.

As before, with the lack of a definite center the initial motion is
quite uncertain, with the current estimate at 325/9 kt.  For the
next couple of days, the system/tropical cyclone is expected to move
slowly north-northeastward on the eastern end of a broad mid-level
cyclonic gyre.  In 3-5 days the motion should bend toward the
northwest and west-northwest due to a mid-level ridge to the north.
The NHC track forecast lies in between the latest GFS and ECMWF
solutions, and is close to the latest simple and corrected dynamical
model consensus predictions.  It should be noted that since there is
considerable spread in the model guidance, this official track
forecast has greater-than-usual uncertainty.

It is also important to note that very heavy rain is possible
outside of the watch/warning area in southwestern Mexico.  These
rains could cause life-threatening flooding and mudslides.  In
addition, wind gusts to tropical storm force are possible along the
coast of Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco states through early
Wednesday due to the system's large circulation.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0900Z 18.5N 108.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  30/1800Z 19.6N 109.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 24H  31/0600Z 20.6N 109.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
 36H  31/1800Z 21.6N 110.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  01/0600Z 22.6N 110.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  02/0600Z 24.5N 112.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  03/0600Z 26.5N 114.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  04/0600Z 27.5N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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