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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112017
300 AM MDT Sat Aug 05 2017

The center of the depression moved over Socorro Island, Mexico
between 0400 and 0500 UTC.  A Mexican Navy automatic weather
station located in that island reported a well defined wind shift
associated with the circulation and 20 to 25 kt winds in gusts. A
recent ASCAT pass shows a few vectors of 30 kt, and this will be the
intensity in this advisory.

The depression has been decapitated by strong upper-level easterly
winds, and the low-level and mid-level centers are now separated by
at least 230 n mi. There are only a few patches of deep convection
left. Since the shear environment is forecast to persist or even
increase, the NHC forecast calls for the depression to become a
remnant low in about 12 hours or so.

The low-level swirl associated with the center of the depression is
moving toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 8 kt around the
periphery of a subtropical ridge. Since no changes in the steering
pattern is forecast by global models, this general motion is
expected to continue until dissipation in a day or so.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0900Z 19.2N 111.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 20.0N 112.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  06/0600Z 20.6N 112.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  06/1800Z 21.2N 113.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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