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Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102017
900 PM MDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Last-light visible images indicate that the low-level center of
Tropical Depression Ten-E remains exposed just to the north of the
main convective mass due to the effects of 10-15 kt of northerly
vertical wind shear.  Satellite intensity estimates are 30 kt from
TAFB and SAB, so that will remain the initial intensity.

The intensity forecast is low confidence due to a large spread in
the guidance and the possibility of interaction with Tropical
Storm Hilary to the east late in the forecast period.  All guidance
agrees that northerly shear produced by a nearby upper-level trough
should continue for the next 36 h, and based on this, the forecast
is for slow strengthening.  The models forecast a somewhat more
favorable environment from 36-72 h, but the guidance becomes very
divergent on how this will affect the cyclone.  By 72 hr, the LGEM
forecasts a 35 kt intensity, the HWRF an 85 kt intensity, and
several other reliable models in between those extremes.  After 72
hr, the cyclone may feel the impact of outflow from Hilary, which
would likely stop any strengthening.  The new intensity forecast is
only slightly changed from the previous forecast, and it lies near
the center of a well spread out guidance envelope.

The initial motion is 280/7.  A ridge between the depression and
Tropical Storm Greg to the west is forecast to steer Ten-E to the
west or west-southwest over the next several days.  Near the end of
the forecast period, the track could be affected by interaction with
Hilary, although only the GFS shows a major impact before 120 h and
thus it is to the southeast of the other models.  The new forecast
track is little changed from the previous track and uses the premise
that the main track impact from the aforementioned interaction will
be after 120 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 14.6N 114.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 14.6N 115.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 14.6N 116.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 14.7N 117.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  25/0000Z 14.7N 118.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  26/0000Z 14.5N 120.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  27/0000Z 14.0N 123.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  28/0000Z 13.5N 126.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

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