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HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092017
0900 UTC MON JUL 24 2017
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 103.8W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 103.8W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 103.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.4N 104.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.1N 106.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.8N 108.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.4N 110.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.5N 114.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  70SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 18.5N 117.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 19.5N 121.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 103.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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