ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Greg Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072017 200 AM PDT Wed Jul 26 2017 Even with the help of microwave imagery, the center of Greg is difficult to locate due to the disorganization of the associated convection. The best estimate is that the center is to the southeast of the remaining convection. The initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory, which could be generous. A combination of continued southerly to westerly shear, a dry air mass, and cool sea surface temperatures along the forecast track should cause the cyclone to stop producing convection and degenerate to a remnant low in about 24 h. The low is subsequently expected to weaken to a trough in 72-96 h. The initial motion is 305/12. Low- to mid-level troughing north of the depression should maintain a northwestward or west-northwestward motion for the next 12-24 hours. After that, the remnant low should turn west-southwestward in the trade winds. The forecast track lies near the model consensus and is similar to the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 17.8N 139.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 18.2N 140.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 18.4N 142.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/1800Z 18.3N 144.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/0600Z 17.9N 145.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/0600Z 17.0N 148.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN
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