ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Greg Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072017 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 25 2017 Greg's convective pattern continues to deteriorate, and all of the thunderstorm activity appears limited to the west and northwest of the low-level center. Dvorak final-T numbers have decreased, and it is assumed that Greg has weakened to a 35-kt tropical storm. Southerly shear is increasing over Greg, and it is expected increase further to around 30-35 kt and turn out of the northwest in about 48 hours. In addition, the low- to mid-level environment continues to get drier, and Greg is moving toward cooler waters. All of this means that additional weakening is anticipated, and Greg is likely to degenerate into a remnant low by 48 hours. The remnant low will likely persist through the remainder of the forecast period. The best estimate of the initial motion is 295/9 kt. A low- to mid-level trough located north and northeast of Greg appears to be allowing the cyclone to gain latitude at the moment. However, as Greg continues to weaken, it is likely to turn west and west-southwest as it becomes steered by the low-level trade winds. Although there is some spread in the track guidance during the remnant low stage, especially regarding the system's forward speed, the NHC track forecast remains in the middle of the guidance envelope, nearest HCCA and the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 15.4N 136.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 16.3N 137.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 17.1N 139.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 17.5N 140.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 17.5N 142.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/1200Z 16.8N 144.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/1200Z 16.0N 147.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/1200Z 15.0N 150.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg NNNN
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