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Tropical Storm Greg Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072017
200 AM PDT Tue Jul 25 2017
Convection associated with Greg is currently very disorganized and
confined to the northwestern quadrant. The initial intensity
remains at 40 kt based on a blend of various satellite intensity
estimates. Greg is forecast to move into a drier air mass,
encounter increasing shear, and move over decreasing sea surface
temperatures during the next 48-72 h, and this combination should
result in the system degenerating to a remnant low during this
time. The new intensity forecast is changed little from the
previous forecast except to make the cyclone a remnant low at 48 h.
The initial motion is 295/8. Greg should move northwestward for
the next day or so on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge.
After that, a turn to the west and then west-southwest is expected
when Greg becomes a shallow system and is steered by the low-level
trade wind flow. The NHC track forecast is again a little to the
north of the previous forecast and lies a little to the south
of the various consensus models.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0900Z 15.2N 135.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 16.0N 136.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 16.9N 137.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 17.5N 139.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 17.6N 140.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/0600Z 17.0N 144.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/0600Z 16.0N 146.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/0600Z 15.0N 149.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Beven
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