ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Greg Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072017 200 PM PDT Sat Jul 22 2017 Similar to the past few days, deep convection from the morning hours has weakened, with the center of Greg peeking out of the cirrus canopy on the southern side of the central dense overcast. Although the latest satellite estimates have risen a bit, the initial wind speed will remain 45 kt after considering the recent degradation of the cloud pattern. It seems like dry air has been getting into the central core of Greg, with some outflow boundaries present in the southern semicircle. This dry air presents a problem for future intensification, since it would take some time to mix out of the storm's circulation and additional environmental dry and stable air is in the forecast path. Thus, the window for strengthening may have ended, and it is becoming more likely that Greg will just slowly weaken as environmental conditions gradually deteriorate. None of the historically reliable guidance strengthen the cyclone now, and the NHC forecast is decreased from the previous one, consistent with the latest model consensus guidance. Greg continues moving westward or 270/11 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone is likely to maintain the westward motion for the next couple of days. In 3-5 days, the ridge is predicted to weaken somewhat, and this should result in Greg slowing down and turning west-northwestward. The GFS-based guidance has made a large westward shift toward the ECMWF/UKMET on this cycle, similar to its overnight trend. Thus, the NHC forecast is shifted westward as well and remains near or west of the model consensus at long range. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 15.1N 125.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 15.0N 126.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 14.9N 129.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 15.0N 131.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 15.2N 133.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 16.3N 135.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 17.3N 138.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 18.0N 141.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake NNNN
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