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Tropical Storm Greg Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072017
800 AM PDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Satellite images indicate that the central convection associated
with Greg has become more compact over the last several hours,
though it is mostly on the northern side of the circulation.
Microwave data also show an increase in organization with a
thin mid-level eye feature now apparent.  Although the conventional
satellite estimates haven't changed, based on the increased
structure in microwave data, the initial wind speed is bumped up to
50 kt, a blend of the latest CI estimates from TAFB/SAB.

The initial motion is a more confident 285/9. A trough to the
northwest of Greg is forecast to lift northward during the next
couple of days, which will probably cause Greg to shift to a more
westward track by Sunday as a ridge builds in slightly.  The
short-term forecast has been shifted northward, similar to the
model consensus. In the longer range, the storm should turn to the
west-northwest or northwest due to a small low- to mid-level trough
dropping out of the mid-latitudes, weakening the periphery of the
aforementioned ridge. Model guidance, however, is not in good
agreement on the long range forecast, with many of the differences
due to the strength of the storm.  It is probably prudent to wait
until the 12Z models come in to see if the ECMWF continues its
previous solution, which the prior NHC forecast weighted heavily.
Thus the new NHC track forecast is basically an update of the last
forecast, on the western side of the model consensus at days 4 and
5.

Greg has a couple of days over warm water left to strengthen.
However, the environment is less than optimal, with light-to-
moderate southerly shear and a drying mid-level atmosphere forecast.
On the other hand, Greg is finally displaying a more solid inner
core, which would generally promote strengthening.  Overall, these
factors support some intensification during the next couple of days,
and that is the solution shown in the latest NHC forecast. Gradual
weakening should begin by day 4 due to colder waters.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/1500Z 15.1N 119.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z 15.4N 120.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  22/1200Z 15.7N 122.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  23/0000Z 15.9N 125.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  23/1200Z 16.0N 127.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  24/1200Z 16.2N 130.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  25/1200Z 17.1N 133.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  26/1200Z 18.5N 136.5W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

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