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TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Storm Greg Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072017
900 AM MDT Tue Jul 18 2017

Shear has lessened over the system and the center now appears to be
beneath the dense overcast.  The intensity is held at 35 kt in
accordance with a Dvorak estimate from SAB.  Gradual strengthening
is forecast while Greg moves over warm waters.  Late in the period,
increasing shear and cooler waters should cause weakening.  The
official intensity forecast is near or a little below the model
consensus.

Greg has been moving west-northwestward to the south of a mid-level
ridge.  Although the ridge is expected to remain in place for the
next several days, a slight complicating factor in the track
forecast is a cyclone, newly formed Tropical Depression Eight-E,
located about 500 n mi to the west of Greg.  Some of the models
indicate that Greg could interact with the other cyclone in a few
days by turning south of west.  The official forecast shows a
slightly south of westward motion in the latter part of the period.
This is roughly in the middle of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 15.0N 108.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 15.2N 109.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  19/1200Z 15.4N 111.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  20/0000Z 15.7N 113.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  20/1200Z 16.2N 115.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  21/1200Z 17.5N 120.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  22/1200Z 17.3N 125.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  23/1200Z 17.0N 130.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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