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Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062017
200 PM PDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Although the central convection has eroded slightly, Fernanda
remains a well-organized tropical cyclone.  The upper-level outflow
is well defined over most of the circulation and the cloud pattern
remains quite symmetric in appearance.  The current intensity
estimate remains 110 kt, which is a blend of the various subjective
and objective Dvorak estimates.  Since Fernanda will be traversing
decreasing sea surface temperatures, gradual weakening is likely
during the next couple of days.  Later in the forecast period,
vertical shear, associated with a large upper-level trough near the
Hawaiian Islands, should result in more rapid weakening.  The
official intensity forecast is very close to the model consensus.

The motion is bending slightly to the right and slowing.  The
mid-level ridge to the north of Fernanda is forecast to weaken over
the next couple of days.  This should cause a turn toward the
northwest with a little more slowing in forward speed over the next
48 hours.  Later in the forecast period, a more leftward heading is
likely while the ridge rebuilds somewhat.  The official forecast
track is only slightly north of the previous one and is close to the
model consensus, TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 14.1N 131.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 14.8N 132.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  18/1800Z 15.7N 133.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  19/0600Z 16.5N 134.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  19/1800Z 17.1N 136.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  20/1800Z 17.9N 139.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  21/1800Z 18.3N 142.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  22/1800Z 18.8N 145.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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