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Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052017
200 AM PDT Wed Jul 12 2017

Eugene is producing minimal deep convection, with only a small
patch of cloud tops colder than -50 deg C north of the center.  An
ASCAT pass at 0453 UTC indicated that the cyclone was still
producing 35-40 kt winds at the time.  Since Eugene is now over sea
surface temperatures of 22-23 deg C and the circulation continues
to spin down, the advisory intensity is set at 35 kt.  Significant
deep convection is unlikely to return given the cold ocean, and
Eugene is therefore expected to degenerate into a remnant low later
today.  Maximum winds will also continue to decrease over the next
few days, and the circulation should dissipate by day 4.

Eugene is maintaining a northwestward motion of 320/8 kt, steered by
low- to mid-level high pressure located over the Baja California
peninsula.  This ridging is expected to strengthen and shift
westward over the next few days, which should cause the remnant
circulation of Eugene to bend a little more to the west before
dissipation.  The updated NHC track forecast is very close to the
TVCN multi-model consensus and not too different from the previous
forecast.

Swells generated by Eugene will continue to affect the west coast of
the Baja California peninsula and southern California during the
next day or two, causing dangerous surf and rip current conditions.
Please refer to statements issued by your local weather office for
additional information.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0900Z 22.9N 121.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  12/1800Z 23.8N 121.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  13/0600Z 24.8N 123.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  13/1800Z 25.8N 124.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  14/0600Z 26.7N 125.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  15/0600Z 28.0N 127.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

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