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Hurricane Eugene Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052017
200 AM PDT Mon Jul 10 2017

Eugene's structure has changed during the past 6-12 hours, as the
hurricane no longer has an eye in infrared satellite imagery.
Microwave data and the derived MIMIC product from UW-CIMSS seem to
suggest that dry air penetrated into the southern portion of
Eugene's circulation and eroded the eyewall.  In addition, center
fixes off of ASCAT data indicate that the low-level center is
displaced to the south of the mid-level rotation noted in
geostationary satellite imagery, indicative of some unforeseen
southerly shear.  Subjective and objective Dvorak intensity
estimates have decreased slightly from six hours ago, and a blend of
the various numbers supports an initial intensity of 85 kt.

Eugene will remain over water warmer than 26C for another 12 hours
or so, and its intensity will either be steady or decrease slowly
during that time.  More pronounced weakening is anticipated after
12 hours when the circulation moves over much colder water, and
Eugene will likely weaken to a tropical storm by tonight and then
degenerate to a remnant low by Wednesday night.  The updated NHC
intensity forecast is fairly close to the ICON intensity consensus
and tries to maintain as much continuity as possible with the
previous forecast.  However, it should be noted that HCCA and the
Florida State Superensemble, both of which have performed well with
Eugene, indicate a faster weakening rate than that shown by the
official forecast.

A weakness in the subtropical ridge located off the northern Baja
California peninsula coast is causing Eugene to move northwestward
with an initial motion of 320/10 kt.  Even as Eugene weakens,
low-level troughing near the California coast should maintain a
northwestward or even north-northwestward track but at a slower
forward speed through most of the forecast period.  The track
guidance remains in good agreement, and the only notable change in
the NHC official forecast is a northeastward shift in the track
during the remnant low stage compared to the previous forecast.

Swells generated by Eugene will propagate northward along the west
coast of the Baja California peninsula to southern California
during the next few days, causing high surf and dangerous rip
current conditions.  Please refer to advisories issued by your
local weather office for additional information.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0900Z 18.1N 116.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  10/1800Z 19.3N 117.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  11/0600Z 20.7N 118.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  11/1800Z 22.1N 119.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  12/0600Z 23.3N 120.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  13/0600Z 25.5N 122.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  14/0600Z 27.5N 124.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  15/0600Z 28.5N 125.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

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