Hurricane EUGENE (Text)


Hurricane Eugene Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052017
900 AM MDT Sun Jul 09 2017

Eugene's eye is becoming more distinct this morning and cold cloud
tops in the eyewall are wrapping more symmetrically around the
center of the hurricane.  Subjective Dvorak classifications
from SAB and TAFB have increased, suggesting around 90 kt at 12Z.
In the last couple of hours, Eugene's convective structure
continues to improve and the objective Advanced Dvorak
Technique currently indicates a substantially higher intensity.  A
blend of these estimates gives 100 kt at advisory time and Eugene
is now a major hurricane.

However, Eugene will be moving from warm to very cool SST, so it is
likely that the hurricane will be peaking very soon. Steady to rapid
weakening should ensue on Monday due to the hurricane ingesting dry
and stable air into its inner core.  It is anticipated that the
system will lose its deep convection in about three days - if not
sooner - and no longer be considered a tropical cyclone.  The
official intensity forecast is slightly lower than indicated in the
previous advisory, and is based upon a blend of the SHIPS/LGEM
statistical models and the COAMPS-TC dynamical guidance.

Eugene has sped up some and is now moving toward the
north-northwest at about 9 kt.  The hurricane should continue
moving in the same general direction and speed during the next 36
hours or so, due to the steering influence of a mid-tropospheric
ridge over the southwestern United States.  As Eugene weakens, it
should be steered toward the west-northwest at a slower rate of
speed by the lower tropospheric tradewinds.  The official track
forecast is based upon the HCCA corrected consensus technique
through three days and upon a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models
thereafter.  This track prediction is very similar to that from the
previous advisory, except slightly more to the west at days four
and five.


INIT  09/1500Z 16.0N 114.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 17.3N 115.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  10/1200Z 18.8N 117.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  11/0000Z 20.3N 118.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  11/1200Z 21.6N 119.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  12/1200Z 23.6N 121.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  13/1200Z 25.3N 124.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  14/1200Z 26.5N 127.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Forecaster Landsea


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Page last modified: Sunday, 31-Dec-2017 12:10:04 UTC