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Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052017
300 PM MDT Sat Jul 08 2017

The cloud pattern in visible images looks much better than
the infrared presentation. Eugene appears to be developing a
banding type eye, and the outflow remains fair. Dvorak estimates are
now T3.5 and T4.0, and on this basis, the initial intensity has
been adjusted upward to 60 kt.

Eugene has the opportunity to gather more strength and become a
hurricane tonight. However, beyond 24 hours a portion of the
circulation will begin to move over cooler waters resulting in
gradual weakening.  By the end of the forecast period, the cyclone
will be over much cooler waters, and Eugene will probably lose most
of its associated convection and become a remnant low. The intensity
forecast brings the winds a little bit higher than the earlier
forecast, but beyond 24 hours, the forecast is similar to the
previous one.

Eugene is moving toward the northwest or 320 degrees at 7 knots,
steered by the flow around the periphery of a mid-level ridge
centered over the western United States and northern Mexico. A weak
mid-latitude trough will cause an erosion of the ridge, and this
steering pattern will keep Eugene on a general northwest track
during the next 4 to 5 days. The NHC forecast is basically in the
middle of the tightly-packed track guidance, and very close to the
multi-model consensus. No important changes to the previous NHC
forecast track are necessary.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/2100Z 13.7N 113.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 14.7N 114.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 16.2N 115.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 17.8N 116.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 19.5N 118.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  11/1800Z 22.0N 120.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  12/1800Z 23.8N 122.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  13/1800Z 25.5N 124.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

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