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Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052017
900 AM MDT Sat Jul 08 2017

Eugene's cloud pattern has improved significantly since yesterday,
and it now consists of a cyclonically-curved convective band
wrapping around the center. The upper-level outflow continues to be
very well established in all quadrants. Based on the average of
intensity estimates of T3.0 and T3.5 on the Dvorak scale from TAFB
and SAB, respectively, and objective numbers from UW-CIMMS, the
winds have been increased to 50 kt in this advisory.

Eugene has the opportunity to gather some strength and become a
hurricane during the next 24 hours or so. However, after that time,
a portion of the circulation will begin to reach cooler waters and
drier air resulting in gradual weakening.  By the end of the
forecast period, the cyclone will be over much cooler waters, and
Eugene will probably lose most of its associated convection and
become a remnant low. The intensity forecast is similar to the
previous one.

Eugene is moving toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 8 knots
around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered
over the western United States and northern Mexico. A weak
mid-latitude trough will cause an erosion of the ridge, and this
steering pattern will keep Eugene on a general northwest track
during the next 4 to 5 days. The NHC forecast is basically in the
middle of the tightly-packed track guidance. No important changes to
the previous NHC forecast are necessary.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/1500Z 13.6N 112.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 14.5N 113.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 15.8N 114.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  10/0000Z 17.5N 115.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  10/1200Z 18.9N 117.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  11/1200Z 21.5N 119.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  12/1200Z 23.8N 121.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  13/1200Z 25.5N 124.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

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