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Tropical Storm Dora Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017
900 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017
Convection associated with Dora has continued to decrease this
evening and is now separated from the low-level center.
A blend of the various objective and subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates yields an initial intensity of 45 kt, which could be
generous. The tropical cyclone is forecast to continue moving
over decreasing sea surface temperatures which should caused
continued weakening, and Dora is forecast to become a remnant low
in 12 to 24 hours.
Dora has turned more westward since the previous advisory, but the
long-term motion is still west-northwestward or 285/11 kt. A
west-northwestward to westward motion to the south of a low- to
mid-level ridge should continue until dissipation occurs in two to
three days. The updated NHC track forecast is close to the
previous advisory and lies between the multi-model consensus
and the more southern ECMWF solution.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/0300Z 19.7N 112.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 20.1N 113.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 20.9N 115.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 29/1200Z 21.5N 116.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/0000Z 21.7N 118.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brown
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