ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032017 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017 Although the deep convection associated with the low pressure system south of Mexico has decreased a little during the day, an earlier ASCAT overpass revealed a well-defined surface circulation. Therefore, the system is being designated as a tropical depression at this time. The current intensity is set at 30 kt, although the scatterometer data suggest that this could be a bit generous. The tropical cyclone is expected to remain in an environment of moderate easterly shear for the next day or two, and only slow strengthening is expected. The official intensity forecast is similar to the model consensus. The system is expected to dissipate over the mountainous terrain of southeastern Mexico in a few days. The initial motion is a rather uncertain 320/4 kt. The cyclone is expected to move generally northwestward to west-northwestward to the west of a mid-level ridge over the next couple of days, and move inland by Tuesday or sooner. The official track forecast is a blend of the latest ECMWF, HWRF, and GFS solutions. Very heavy rains and the threat of flooding and mudslides should be the primary concern with this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 14.5N 95.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 14.7N 95.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 15.2N 96.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 15.6N 96.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 15.9N 97.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN
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