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Tropical Storm Adrian Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012017
400 PM CDT Wed May 10 2017

Adrian is not a well-organized tropical cyclone, and it continues
to lack vertical coherence.  Analyses from the GFS and ECMWF global
models continue to show a pronounced southeast to northwest tilt
with height, likely due to significant mid-level southeasterly
shear.  Visible satellite images show an unimpressive low-cloud
swirl centered well to the southeast of a ragged area of deep
convection, which is apparently Adrian's center of circulation. The
intensity is reduced to 35 kt based on Dvorak classifications from
TAFB and SAB. The GFS and ECMWF models do not intensify the system,
and in fact practically dissipate it in a few days.  HWRF shows only
slight strengthening over the forecast period, and has been
increasingly less aggressive over the past few runs.  The SHIPS
model continues to insist that Adrian will eventually become a
hurricane.  Based on the current state of the tropical cyclone and
the dynamical guidance, the official intensity forecast has been
significantly reduced in comparison to the previous ones. This is
close to the latest intensity model consensus, IVCN. Alternatively,
if Adrian does not make a comeback soon, the system could dissipate.

After relocating the past couple of working best track center
positions southeastward to account for the current position
estimate, the initial motion estimate is about 315/4 kt.  Adrian is
expected to turn toward the west-northwest, on the south side of a
mid-level ridge, over the next couple of days. Thereafter the ridge
is forecast to collapse, leaving the tropical cyclone embedded in
weak steering currents.  The official track forecast, like the
previous one, shows the system slowing to a halt later in the
forecast period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/2100Z 10.5N  92.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  11/0600Z 11.2N  93.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  11/1800Z 11.8N  94.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  12/0600Z 12.2N  95.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  12/1800Z 12.5N  96.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  13/1800Z 12.8N  97.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  14/1800Z 13.0N  97.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  15/1800Z 13.0N  97.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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