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Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012017
400 PM CDT Tue May 09 2017

The cloud pattern of the low pressure area located a few hundred
miles south-southwest of El Salvador has continued to become better
organized, with developing convective banding features.  Also, data
from a recent ASCAT overpass showed that a closed circulation has
developed.  Therefore advisories are being initiated on this system.
 The intensity is set at 30 kt in agreement with the scatterometer
measurements and a Dvorak classification from SAB. The tropical
cyclone is expected to remain over warm waters of SSTs near 30 deg C
through the forecast period, and the global models show the system
remaining beneath an upper-level anticyclone with well-defined
outflow.  Thus, strengthening is likely and the official intensity
forecast is a little below the intensity model consensus.

Geostationary satellite and scatterometer fixes indicate that the
initial motion is 300/5 kt.  The tropical cyclone is expected to be
situated to the south of a mid-level anticyclone, centered over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico, for the next several days.  This
steering pattern should maintain a general west-northwestward motion
through 72 hours or so.  Later in the forecast period, the
anticyclone is predicted to weaken and this should induce a turn to
the north.  The official track forecast is roughly in the middle of
the dynamical track guidance, and is between the GFS and ECMWF
solutions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/2100Z  9.3N  91.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z  9.7N  91.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 10.1N  93.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 10.5N  94.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  11/1800Z 10.8N  95.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  12/1800Z 12.0N  96.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  13/1800Z 13.0N  96.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  14/1800Z 14.0N  96.0W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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